The UK state pension triple lock policy is back in the spotlight, with fresh calls this week to scrap a guarantee that lifted payments for more than 12 million people by up to £575 a year in April. The Guardian reports that debate is heating up ahead of chancellor John Healey’s Budget on 28 October 2026, when he could signal changes.
The Financial Times went further, publishing an opinion piece bluntly headlined “It’s time to scrap the triple lock”. Meanwhile, the British Chambers of Commerce urged ministers to drop the pledge and redirect the savings towards youth unemployment. For pensioners, the outcome could shape how much their income rises next April.
What is the UK state pension triple lock policy?
The triple lock guarantees the state pension rises each year by whichever of three measures is highest:
- Inflation: the consumer price index (CPI) figure for September of the previous year.
- Average wage growth: the average earnings increase over the May to July period of the previous year.
- 2.5%: a fixed minimum floor.
According to The Guardian, the policy was announced in the June 2010 Budget by then-Conservative chancellor George Osborne and fully took effect in 2012. It was originally a Liberal Democrat demand during coalition talks, which is why the Lib Dems also claim it as theirs. The charity Age UK says the lock has “rebuilt the value of the state pension” and improved living standards for some of the poorest pensioners.
Who does the triple lock affect?
It applies to anyone in the UK who receives the state pension, including those on the old system who reached state pension age before 6 April 2016. That covers more than 12 million people.
This year, because of the triple lock, the basic and new state pensions rose by 4.8% from 6 April. The relevant CPI rate was 3.8% and the wage increase was 4.8%, so the higher wages figure applied. As a result:
- Full new state pension: rose from £230.25 to £241.30 a week.
- Full basic state pension: rose from £176.45 to £184.90 a week.
Why do critics say the triple lock is unaffordable?
Much of the argument centres on cost. The government-backed MoneyHelper website notes that the triple lock pushed the state pension up by 10.1% in 2023, 8.5% in 2024, 4.1% in 2025, and 4.8% in 2026 “costing billions”.
Several respected bodies have raised alarms:
- Office for Budget Responsibility: last year the government’s economics watchdog said the policy “has cost around three times more than initial expectations” because of economic volatility.
- Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS): on Thursday the thinktank said this year’s state pension bill is expected to hit £154bn, with spending now £16bn a year higher than it would have been without the triple lock.
- Future projections: the IFS estimates that by 2050, keeping the triple lock would probably cost about £20bn a year in today’s terms, though “high uncertainty” means the figure could land anywhere between £5bn and £40bn.
The Resolution Foundation branded the triple lock “a terrible policy” earlier this year. Supporters, however, argue it is essential for protecting the value of the state pension, particularly for future pensioners who lack access to the generous workplace schemes many older people once enjoyed.
Could the triple lock be scrapped in the Budget?
Legally, the government only has to raise the state pension in line with average wage growth. That gives ministers room to change or drop the triple lock. But MoneyHelper points out this “would be a very political decision” and “unlikely to be an overnight change”.
Chancellor John Healey could address the issue in his Budget on 28 October. Rather than an outright cut, he might set out a timetable for change or propose an alternative. Options floated include a “double-lock” system, linking rises to just prices or just earnings, or another formula designed to smooth out volatility.
Andy Burnham’s former economic adviser, Jim O’Neill, said last week that the bond markets would respond favourably if the chancellor were “to take credible action to deal with the excesses of the triple lock or the excesses of welfare spending”. Adding intrigue, the triple lock has long been popular on the left, so speculation now surrounds whether a Labour chancellor will be the one to reform it.
How much will the state pension rise next April?
The figures that decide next April’s increase are due soon. The May-to-July wages figure was set for release on Tuesday, while the September CPI inflation figure will be published the week before the Budget.
For context, the April-to-June wages figure announced last month came in at 4.1%, and July’s CPI inflation stood at 2.9%. If the May-to-July wages figure also lands at 4.1% and that is the measure used, The Guardian calculates it would add £9.90 a week to the full new state pension, lifting it to £251.20.
So, if you receive the full new state pension and a 4.1% uplift applies, your weekly payment would climb from £241.30 to £251.20 from next April. Both the wages and inflation announcements are likely to sharpen the debate in the run-up to 28 October. You can read the full analysis on the Guardian’s business pages at theguardian.com.
